El Niño is not on the way. It is already here. On September 10, 2026, NOAA's Climate Prediction Center issued an El Niño Advisory and said there is a greater than 90% chance of a very strong event this fall and winter, with a 75% chance that October to December is stronger than any El Niño since 1950. The next update is due October 8.
What should a Toronto homeowner do with that? Less than the headlines suggest. This post covers what the forecasts say, what they cannot tell you, and a short furnace checklist that is worth doing whatever the winter turns out to be.
What the forecasters are saying
The NOAA discussion is the source of the numbers above. The World Meteorological Organization agrees: it calls El Niño "firmly established" and puts the likelihood that it lasts through February 2027 at nearly 100%. Read the NOAA discussion and the WMO update for the detail.
Notice what those numbers describe: how strong the warming in the Pacific will be. They are not a Toronto temperature forecast. NOAA itself says that with an event this size, the chances of El Niño-type impacts are larger, "though not guaranteed."
What it usually means for southern Ontario
Modest. Environment and Climate Change Canada says Canada is mostly affected by El Niño in winter and spring, and that eastern Canada "usually experiences lesser effects" than the west.
For the Great Lakes region, NOAA and its partners describe a tilt toward above-normal temperatures and drier conditions. Cold air outbreaks "tend to be less frequent," but "cold weather will still occur." The same NOAA and Great Lakes partners document adds a warning: each event is unique and may not follow the pattern. It also lists what El Niño is not known to affect, including the potential for ice storms or blizzards and the track or strength of any one weather system. A winter that averages mild can still contain a rough week.
Last winter is the reminder
Last winter was cold and very snowy in Toronto. On January 25, 2026, Environment Canada recorded 46 cm of snow at Pearson, the most on record there in one day. Pearson's January total of 88.2 cm was the snowiest month since records began in 1937 (CityNews, citing Environment Canada). Nobody was calling that a mild winter in advance.
What a normal Toronto winter asks of a furnace
Environment Canada's 1991-2020 normals for Toronto Pearson show about 3,751 heating degree days (18°C base), a January average of -5.0°C, and about 34 days a year with a low below -10°C. Downtown Toronto runs a little warmer, with a January average of -3.5°C. A milder tilt shifts those numbers at the edges. It does not turn a Toronto winter into a light-duty season for your furnace.
What about the gas bill?
We have not found an authoritative winter 2026-27 gas price outlook for Ontario, so we will not guess one. What is public: as of July 1, 2026, the Gas Supply Charge for the Toronto-area Enbridge Gas rate zone is 9.0498 cents per cubic metre (Ontario Energy Board). Rates reset every quarter, and as of September 21 the October 1 rate had not been published. The federal consumer carbon charge came off Enbridge Gas bills on April 1, 2025; a small facility carbon charge remains.
A furnace checklist that works in any winter
- Book the annual inspection. Enbridge recommends a licensed contractor inspect the furnace at least once a year, before the heating season. Our furnace maintenance page covers what a tune-up includes.
- Check the filter. Natural Resources Canada says to change or clean forced-air filters every three months or when they are loaded. Follow your owner's manual.
- Test your CO alarms. Since January 1, 2026, Ontario requires a carbon monoxide alarm on every storey, plus next to sleeping areas, in homes with a fuel-burning appliance, a fireplace or an attached garage. Our guide to what to check when a furnace stops working has the details.
- Clear vents and the gas meter after every storm. Enbridge says to use a soft broom, because blocked intake and exhaust vents can make gas appliances malfunction and release carbon monoxide. If the meter is iced over, call Enbridge at 1-866-763-5427 instead of chipping at it.
- Plan for an outage. A gas furnace still needs electricity for its blower and controls. Do not use a gas oven or stove as a heat source, and run a generator outdoors, at least 6 metres (20 feet) from the building (Ontario.ca, Health Canada). The March 2025 ice storm left more than a million Ontario homes and businesses without power at some point (Canadian Press), with restoration running into mid-April.
If your furnace is old, decide now, not in January
Hydro One says a furnace can work reliably for 15 to 20 years, and likely more if it is maintained. If yours is in that range and has needed repairs, it is cheaper to compare options in the fall, when you pick the day, than after a January breakdown. Our post on furnace replacement cost in Toronto shows what other installers publish and what moves a quote.
On rebates: the Home Renovation Savings program has no rebate for a gas furnace. It does have one for qualifying cold-climate heat pumps, up to $2,000 for a gas-heated home, so check homerenovationsavings.ca before you decide. In-house rebates available, ask at your quote. We don't file government rebate paperwork.
Quotes by phone are free. Call (647) 852-2359 and we will talk through your furnace, or see our Toronto service area page. We work across Toronto and the GTA.
Sources
- NOAA Climate Prediction Center ENSO discussion, September 10, 2026
- World Meteorological Organization El Niño update, September 2026
- Environment and Climate Change Canada, El Niño
- NOAA and partners, El Niño impacts and outlook for the Great Lakes, November 2023
- Environment Canada climate normals 1991-2020
- Ontario Energy Board, natural gas rates and Enbridge Gas, federal carbon charge
- Enbridge Gas, reduce heating costs and keep your meter clear
- Hydro One, furnace repair or replace
- Ontario.ca, carbon monoxide safety and power outages and blackouts
- Health Canada, preventing carbon monoxide exposure (generator safety)